The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) has now been revealed, and it is clear why it took days before a US official read it out to reporters in advance of the signing ceremony. The deal commits the US to steps Trump vowed never to take, while for Iran there is much to celebrate despite the scale of destruction by US bombs. In a word, Iran retains the leverage it discovered it has always had—closure of the Strait of Hormuz—plus future economic benefits that will strengthen the regime.
Trump’s Shallow Defense
Trump’s defense of the deal with Iran comes down to two points. First, the world would have faced “economic catastrophe” if the war had continued. “If we didn’t do this deal, we could have dropped more bombs for another three weeks . . . four weeks . . . two years . . . you would never have the Hormuz strait open. Second, he had to do something about Iran’s nuclear capability, since “If they had a nuclear weapon, they would have used it within moments.” Utter nonsense: He caused the economic crisis, dropped bombs for over three months nevertheless, and is still threatening to resume bombing if Iran doesn’t abide by the deal. (“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” Trump said.) His real worry is that the stock market kept going down—“at levels that nobody ever saw before, maybe, except for 1929,” he said at a press briefing after the G7 meeting in Paris. Trump said he didn’t want to be the next Herbert Hoover.
As for Iran having and using a nuclear weapon, well, we know—and US intelligence has concluded several times since 2003—that Iran was not close to having a nuclear weapon. Even if it had one, using it would, like North Korea, risk regime elimination. The MOU repeats Iran’s pledge of 2015 that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons”. Both sides also commit to “resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon.” That translates to allowing Iran’s nuclear establishment—the facilities, the expertise, the nuclear stockpile—to remain in place, with Iran committed only to diluting its enriched uranium. Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missiles are fine with Trump. The 2015 agreement concluded under Barack Obama was roundly criticized for not including limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles. Now Trump has agreed that Iran can have “some” missiles, since others in the region have missiles. Such generosity will not sit well with the Saudis and other Gulf governments, not to mention Israel, where the US-Iran agreement is being attacked from all sides as a Trump sellout of Israel.
So Much for Red Lines
It’s impossible to believe what Trump and other US officials say. Consider the red line that once existed on providing financial and economic benefits to Iran. Under the MOU, Iran is free to export its oil without hindrance. A $300 billion fund for reconstruction of Iran has been set up in lieu of war reparations. Trump called it an investment fund, one in which the US would not contribute “ten cents.” Actually, it’s a reconstruction fund that supposedly will rely on private money. Yet it allows for contributions by governments from the Gulf and elsewhere. You can bet that US corporations will jump at the chance to invest in rebuilding the Iranian economy. Trump even commits the US to “terminate all types of sanctions” on Iran, though Trump later said that sanctions relief depended on whether or not Iran “behaved well.”
Trump will also have some explaining to do on returning frozen assets to Iran. His most important reason for terminating the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 was that it had rewarded Iran with the return of over $1.7 billion in funds that had been intended for the purchase of US weapons. Now Trump says: “We have taken a lot of their money. It’s not our money, it’s their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time. I guess we’re going to have to give it back, you know, if we didn’t give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again.” Strange that he didn’t think of that in 2018 or in February of this year.
In summary, all the red lines have been disregarded in favor of doing business with Iran, which will put the regime in a much stronger situation than before the war. Its oil economy will be back up; roads, bridges, and other infrastructure will have money to rebuild. Sometime in the future, if the Iranian leadership judges that the country’s security is threatened, it may finally take the plunge and seek to produce a nuclear weapon.
On the political side, there’s the matter of regime change. Where once Trump & Co. were looking for a more “pragmatic” Iranian leader, under the new agreement the US accepts the regime’s legitimacy and security. The two sides now agree to “respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.” That’s an extraordinary—and welcome—step back from a longstanding US policy, carried out by Trump himself in his first term, to destabilize Iran’s economy and undermine its repressive regime.
The Devil is in the Details
Donald Trump deserves vigorous criticism and even impeachment for illegally starting a war, for causing immense and needless destruction in human life and property (including the as yet unexplained bombing of a school that killed over 100 children), and for conniving with Israel at the expense of real US security. Yet if the agreement with Iran is followed through, it would be largely favorable to Middle East peace and to the world economy. It would mean an end to US threats to Iran, a return to safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, and a non-nuclear Iran. On the other hand, this agreement does not disempower the repressive regime in Iran, change the calculations of militant groups in the region, or provide security and justice for the Palestinian people.
As always, however, the devil is in the details. The MOU contains the seeds of future disagreements and confrontations, as US official made plain when he said the MOU “commits us to quite literally nothing, but of course, if Iranians do a lot of good, then we want to reward that good behavior and transform their relationship with the Middle East and the world.” That arrogance bodes ill. Sixty days from now, it is highly likely that the far right in Israel will still be ascendant, with dire consequences for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank; that the US will still be providing Israel with bombs and other military aid; that Israeli forces will still be in Lebanon (Netanyahu responded to the US-Iran agreement by saying that it “requires maintaining the security zone in southern Lebanon, and it requires that we not withdraw from it as long as Israel’s security needs demand it”); that Iran’s nuclear establishment will still be functioning; that Iran will be demanding sanctions relief, payment for passage in the Strait, and fulfillment of the $300 billion reconstruction bill; and that Iran will be jailing and executing dissidents.
In the Human Interest - Mel Gurtov 