Condemnation of Iran’s attack on Israel seems to be nearly universal. The UN, NATO countries, Jordan and Egypt—it’s a pretty widespread view. We may all be thankful that the damage from the attack was minimal. But it didn’t come out of the blue. So here’s my evidently minority view.
After Israel carried out an air strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, killing seven military commanders, Iran made good on its threat to retaliate. After waiting a few days, Iran launched (by Israel’s count) 185 drones and 146 missiles, the first time it has directly attacked Israel. The Biden administration, having urged Iran to restrain its response, joined Israel in shooting down nearly all of them. Is that the end of the matter, or is the exchange of attacks the beginning of a war?
First, let’s consider the sequence of events in this latest confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel’s attack in Damascus killed several Iranian commanders. Iran was forced to respond. As CNN reported April 11, “Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned again that Israel ‘must be punished and will be punished.’” The US sent the senior US commander in the Middle East to help Israel. President Biden urged restraint on Iran, but renewed his “ironclad” support of Israel.
My questions: Why did Israel, involved in war with Hamas and Hezbollah, decide to attack an Iranian target, knowing Iran would have to respond? Was Israel’s action necessary for self-defense, or was it a deliberate provocation, designed to justify an attack on Iran—perhaps on its nuclear fuel production site at Fordow—or to entrap the US into redoubling its commitment to Israel’s defense at the precise moment when Israeli-US relations are strained?
Iran’s response was indeed restrained. It could have launched far more missiles at Israel’s population centers, causing inestimable damage and forcing Israel to respond in kind. Instead, it mainly sent drones, which gave Israel several hours to prepare. Iran’s decision may well have kept the situation from escalating to a major war.
Even if the current situation amounts to a dangerous episode but not a war, it provides another boost for Benjamin Netanyahu as he seeks to remain in power. For the US, the key task now is to ensure that Israel takes no further military action against Iran. Biden, having restrained Iran, must now restrain Israel. Netanyahu must not be allowed to drag the US into a war with Iran. Iran’s UN mission has declared that “the matter can be deemed concluded,” meaning no further attacks will occur unless Israel retaliates. News reports suggest, however, that an Israeli military response is under discussion. Biden has told Netanyahu he should be content with having demonstrated Israel’s superiority, and the US will not participate should Israel act anyway. That’s not enough to deter Netanyahu, however; he must be made to understand that a wider war is unthinkable and unacceptable.
This latest episode has already exacted high costs. The chances of Israel and Hamas reaching an agreement on a cease-fire and exchanges of hostages for prisoners have greatly diminished. Hezbollah’s restraint in the West Bank may end. Iran may accelerate plans to produce a nuclear bomb. Other groups supported by Iran, such as the Houthis in Yemen, may become more aggressive. And the US is now surely more deeply involved in Middle East conflicts, including direct support of Israel, than the Biden administration wants. All this because of an Israeli attack whose motives and aims raise serious questions.
In the Human Interest - Mel Gurtov 
While your choice of horrible scenarios (final paragraph) is certainly not implausible, there is also a chance that Iran’s attack has done more to damage Netanyahu politically than militarily. If Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is satisfied with the statement made via its limited missile and drone attack on Israel, then ironically it may have denied Netanyahu precisely the results he would have valued most: an active military rumble with Iran sufficient to freeze N’s domestic opponents in place.
:Larry
I think Netanyahu benefits either way. His objective, we agree, is to prolong his political life. Now that conflict with Iran has been reactivated, Bibi will use it no matter whether it escalates or simply simmers.
Yes, my Brother … while Iran’s response was expected, even encouraged, the insanity/carnage persists and gains momentum … has ANYONE offered a real way out?
Thanks, Michelle. The only way out is a just peace, which Israel is anxious to avoid as you know. As we often find in international conflicts, war–or perpetual tension–is more attractive than diplomacy and settlement of differences.
Sadly profitable $$$$
Do you follow Clare Daly, member of the European Parliament from Ireland? https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPRTTKLbF/
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPRTwRdmg/
I’m not on Tik tok. Can you send me her comments some other way?
I never would have thought of that, and reading it, I’m amazed at your insight — that Israel bombed thce Iranian consulate to suck the US back into the war. Frightening, and most likely right.