The first face-to-face high-level talks between the US and Iran since 1979 have ended without agreement. Hardly surprising; both sides put forward positions not subject to actual bargaining. On the US side, according to JD Vance: “We need to see an affirmative commitment that [Iran] will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that will enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon. That is the core goal of the president of the United States.” His message to Iran was that no uranium enrichment for any purpose would be acceptable to the US, which is a non-starter for Iran.
On the Iranian side, the insistence on sovereign control of the Strait, with ship movement subject to Iran’s military and a toll, is unacceptable to the US, the Gulf states, and most other countries. Iran’s second demand, that Israel must stop bombing Lebanon, is reasonable, but as a test of US influence over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is unlikely to work.
What does seem negotiable are Iran’s demand for an end to sanctions, a permanent peace with the US, and Iran’s pledge (with resumed international inspections) not to seek a nuclear weapon. That would take us back to Obama’s nuclear deal, which Trump tore up. We’re now paying the price for that stupidity.
At bottom, the talks failed because each side thinks it has a winning hand. Trump believes Iran will cave under threat of resumption of bombing. He told Fox News that his threat to Iran’s “whole civilization” “brought them to the table.” Vance, no doubt following orders, seemed to give Iran a take-it-or-leave-it demand, as though this 21-hour meeting would be the only opportunity to resolve issues that may take years to resolve. Iran believes its control of the Strait and its endurance under threat will lead the US to back off. As one observer puts it: “From Tehran’s perspective, it has withstood pressure, absorbed blows, and demonstrated its capacity to retaliate across multiple arenas. That is not the mindset of a regime preparing to compromise.”
Some observers thought Vance’s termination of talks might be a negotiating tactic. But Trump showed otherwise when he announced a US blockade of the Strait, saying “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” The blockade, which is an act of war, is said to involve mine clearing and policing to prevent any vessel from paying Iran a transit fee. How that action gibes with reopening the Strait is beyond me. Nor does Trump’s latest announcement suggest openness to further talks. Sounds more like the death knell for the cease-fire. Iran, on the other hand, says it hopes talks will continue. Pakistan’s prime minister, host of the talks, said on “Face the Nation” that “The talks are not dead. There’s a stalemate.” He needs to talk to Trump.As often happens with this President, his thoughts stray from the hard work of finding a way to get out of this costly and unnecessary war to personal pique. Talking to reporters yesterday, he spent most of his time denouncing the news media’s coverage of the war—with specific reference to CNN and the New York Times—as “almost treasonous.” He should look in the mirror.
In the Human Interest - Mel Gurtov 