Post #500: No Exit in Iran

A Hopeless US Proposal

Donald Trump thinks a 15-point plan will end the war with Iran. Seems like a hope and a prayer. Predictably, Iran rejected it out of hand and has put forward its own plan, which the US will surely reject. Negotiations are not taking place despite Trump’s claims otherwise. All that is happening is that intermediaries are moving back and forth on what looks like mission impossible. The war goes on—Israel and the US continue to strike Iran, Iran continues to retaliate, few ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and world economies take increasingly big hits.

Let’s look at what the US and Iran are proposing. According to Foreign Policy magazine, “Under Trump’s proposal, Iran would “commit never to pursue nuclear weapons,” dismantle its three main nuclear facilities, and surrender all enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran would also suspend ballistic missile production; limit the rest of its missile program; reopen the Strait of Hormuz; and stop funding regional proxy groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.” If Iran agrees to the US plan, all sanctions on Iran would be lifted.

It’s easy to understand why Iran has rejected this plan. To start with, some parts of the plan appear to be the same as those put before the Iranians in failed negotiations that preceded Trump’s attack. Why he thinks Iran will accept them now is unclear. Iran has consistently rejected dismantling its nuclear program, stopping or giving up uranium enrichment, or limiting the range of its missiles. Perhaps Trump or his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, believe Iran has been so decimated militarily that it has no options. It does: controlling the Strait of Hormuz and sending missiles and drones to military and energy targets all around the Gulf, which it is still doing despite being “obliterated.”

No Way Forward and No Negotiations

The US proposal is also said to include a temporary cease-fire. Why would Iran agree to allowing the US and Israel time to refurbish their arsenals for a future attack? Iran’s foreign minister says “a ceasefire without guarantees is a vicious cycle that only leads to the repetition of war,” Besides, would Netanyahu agree to a cease-fire when he has vowed to completely destroy Iran regardless of what the US does?

Iran’s plan is about as unrealistic as the US plan. According to Foreign Policy, the plan includes “the United States and Israel paying reparations for war damages, recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ending international sanctions on Tehran, and implementing a wider Middle East cease-fire that would protect Iran’s proxy groups.” Iran said that it would negotiate over the status of its nuclear enrichment capabilities but not its missile program. It maintained that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until a peace deal was secured, and even then, it would start charging tolls to ships that use the strait.

Beyond the proposals lies the question of negotiations. To hear Trump tell it, negotiations are ongoing and productive. The peculiarity here is that it’s the US which seems most determined to negotiate even though Trump has proclaimed victory. Iran, supposedly defeated, is less interested in dealing—and according to a number of experts, considers itself in the driver’s seat despite the destruction all around it. Why might that be? My guess is that the Iranians think Trump is increasingly desperate to stop the fighting. He has failed to achieve any of  his objectives, the costs of the war for the US and many partners are rising fast, and the war has become a serious political liability for Trump and the Republicans.

A Very Dangerous Moment

Trump is increasingly being put in the worst possible predicament: either find a face-saving way out, keep bombing with no end in sight, or invade Iran. He has clearly discarded the first option and for now thinks (or hopes) relentless bombing will win the day. All Trump will say is “They’ll tell you, ‘we’re not negotiating,’” he said. “Of course, they’re negotiating. They’ve been obliterated.” And “in the meantime, we’ll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded, unstopped.” Or as Pete Hegseth pithily puts it: “We negotiate by bombing.” No wonder Iran is in no hurry to make a deal. There’s no incentive to negotiate.

Nevertheless, Trump’s inner circle keeps pretending the US is in good shape. Steve Witkoff, for instance, says there are “strong signs” that peace is a possibility. “Iran is looking for an off-ramp,” he says. Not Trump but Iran. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent thinks the world oil market is “well supplied” and that once the war is over, lower energy prices and less inflation will appear because there will be “absolute security.” Trump not only believes Iran will agree to his terms. He has thoughts about taking over its oil. “I mean, I wouldn’t talk about it, but it’s an option.” Again, the Venezuela fallacy.

Trump has painted himself into a corner, and no number of suspensions of threats to obliterate will get him out of it. Not only are gas prices rising and inflation (according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) likely to hit 4 percent. Some Republicans in Congress are complaining about a lack of information about war plans. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is said to be on the verge of introducing a bill to authorize US military action as a way to draw out who supports and who doesn’t support the war. Republicans can’t look away any longer as another 7,000 troops are being sent to the Middle East and the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion to cover war expenses. Trump’s approval ratings, already very low before his order to attack Iran, are now in free fall. He’s losing, he’s desperate, and therefore he’s at his most reckless and dangerous.