APB: Regime Change in Venezuela

America First; Who’s Next?

The US has overthrown the Maduro regime in Venezuela, captured its leader, Nicolas Maduro, and occupied the country. Continuing a long history of US interventions in Latin America, Trump has vowed to “run the country until such time that we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.” The US policy of regime change had been telegraphed for months, as Trump ramped up attacks on supposed Venezuelan drug boats, imposed an oil blockade, and ordered a CIA drone strike on a Venezuelan dock alleged to be used for loading drugs. Now those clear violations of international and US law, and false allegations about Venezuela’s role in the fentanyl trade, its theft of US oil, and its ties to narco-terrorist gangs are ending with an occupation and US control of Venezuela’s oil-based economy.

The US action is consistent with “America First,” said Trump, citing the need for oil and energy. The US will be in charge of Venezuela’s oil industry. So, in a word, it’s imperialism—and a clear sign that for Trump, dominance in Latin America is his top foreign policy objective. We now await word about whom Trump will select to be America’s puppet in Caracas—he has already ruled out the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado—and who among his inner circle will become head of the occupation.

The US intervention comes despite a call by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for UN action to prevent the crisis, and despite polls showing around 75 percent of Americans oppose an invasion of Venezuela. Sheinbaum condemned foreign intervention and warned that the UN’s silence could have dangerous consequences. Now Mexico could be next on Trump’s crusade. “The cartels are running Mexico — she’s not running Mexico,” Trump just said. “I’ve asked her numerous times, ‘Would you like us to take out the cartels?’” “Something is going to have to be done with Mexico.”

Cuba and Colombia have also been threatened. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned Cuba, a major recipient of Venezuelan oil, and Trump has called Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, an “illegal drug leader.” Petro could be “next,” Trump said last month; he should “watch his ass,” he told reporters a few days ago. Petro has fired back, saying that. Trump “deserves nothing but jail” for having the U.S. military destroy the vessels and kill their crews. While critics have long assailed . Petro’s drug policy, accusing him of being too lenient on coca growers and armed groups, there is no evidence he leads or is tied to any criminal organization.

Reactions

Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, and Brazil were among the Latin American countries that have condemned the US invasion of Venezuela. President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil said the US attacks “crossed an unacceptable line,” set a “dangerous precedent,” and evoked “the worst moments of interference” in Latin America. Russia also criticized the US; but Moscow must be pleased that the US has emulated Russia in attacking a sovereign nation. Trump has given the Russians and the Chinese a major propaganda victory.

Reactions in the US to the attack on Venezuela run along predictable lines. Democrats are wringing their hands, Republicans on sitting on theirs. Democrats in Congress are once again citing Trump’s failure to consult with Congress, much less gain an authorization for the use of force such as George W. Bush obtained when he went after Saddam Hussein. Some Democrats and foreign policy wonks are citing the “dangerous precedent” of the US abducting a foreign leader—though it seems to me that invading and occupying another country, while not without precedent in US history, is more dangerous still. The closest Republicans have come to criticism of Trump’s action has been expressions of the need for an examination of the facts behind the decision to attack—as though the facts aren’t abundantly clear already. Among the many points left unsaid was Trump’s violation of his promise not to involve the US in new interventions abroad. And the invasion is another instance of Trump’s lawlessness. As Harold Koh, a former legal adviser to the State Department, says: “Trump has baldly violated the UN Charter, with no valid claim of self-defense, and engaged in an illegal extraterritorial arrest that will be vigorously contested in a U.S. court.”

A Dismal Future

One thing is certain: Trump’s “running” of Venezuela will be a disaster for its people and for Trump’s presidency. The same people who have run the US economy into the ground will be presiding over Venezuela’s economy. Only the naïve believe Trump when he says Venezuelans will benefit from “a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground.”He and the oil companies which, Trump expects, will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela will be the only beneficiaries. The country will be a US colony, and its new leader—Venezuela’s vice president has fled to Moscow—will be beholden to Trump, who has said nothing about restoring democracy in Venezuela.  (Of Delcy Rodríguez, the vice president, Trump said Rubio “just had a conversation with her, and she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.” Rodríguez contradicted Trump, saying Venezuela “will never return to being the colony of another empire.”)

All those Venezuelans who are now waving American flags in the country’s streets are in for a profound disappointment. The day of reckoning for Trump will start when those same Venezuelans demonstrate, shouting “Yanquis go home.” But even before that day, watch the Republicans squirm as they try to explain to constituents why the Trump administration is spending enormous sums on drug trafficking and oil extraction abroad while the US has an affordability problem and fentanyl and cocaine remain readily available.