A podcast of this post is available at https://melgurtov.substack.com/p/global-citizen-international-digest-916
The reelection of Donald J. Trump is clearly the most notable event of 2025. We thought we knew him and what to expect of him. But we, and the world, discovered that we had grossly underestimated the damage one leader could do to country and planet. We had failed to consider that he had learned a few things from his first term, such as how to avoid guardrails, how to maximize the President’s power, how to undermine enemies, and how to discard legal constraints—all preordained in the Project 2025 blueprint. As Trump said in an interview with The Atlantic (June, 2025) a few months into his second term: “The first time, I had two things to do—run the country and survive. I had all these crooked guys. And the second time, I run the country and the world.” Run them into the ground, it turns out.
We did not imagine that Trump would seek to overturn the constitutional order following his failed coup of January 6, 2021; that he would seek to upset the global economic order by weaponizing tariffs; that he would appoint such a large cast of unqualified, incompetent loyalists to key government posts; that he would use the department of justice to go after real and imagined enemies; and that he would seek to bring to heel every institution of civil society—the press, judges, universities, law firms, entertainers—just as any dictator would. Finally, we could not imagine that the leader of our country would be so lacking in common human decencies—that he would be so devoid of empathy and compassion, so focused on retribution, so single-minded in acquiring wealth for himself and his billionaire supporters, so openly racist and homophobic.
The global impact of Trump’s first year has been extraordinary. From immigration and the global economy to national security and alliance politics, his administration has consistently defied norms. Traditional US alliances such as NATO in Europe and Japan and Korea in Asia have been reduced in importance, whereas currying favor with autocracies, especially Russia and Hungary, has risen in importance. America’s openness to immigrants has been reduced to whites-only. Applications for asylum have virtually stopped being processed and immigration from 39 countries so far has stopped or been heavily restricted. ICE and Border Patrol have become a heavily armed domestic army to deal with what Trump calls “the enemy within.”
Trump’s seizure and deportation of thousands of people who were stellar members of their communities has become the new normal, a huge business unto itself, setting a model for far-right governments elsewhere. The anti-immigrant stance, as well as differences over Ukraine war policy and climate change, have put the US starkly at odds with democratic Europe and in sync with far-right parties. The ”American example,” which once touted constitutional democracy, now explicitly promotes far-right political groups that are making headway in France, Germany, Britain, and Italy. The Trump administration’s latest National Security Strategy paper says that Europe is facing the ‘stark prospect of civilizational erasure,’ whereas “the growing influence of patriotic European parties [meaning the far right nationalists] indeed gives cause for great optimism.” “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory.” to prevent a future in which ‘certain NATO members will become majority non-European.’” Trump has also come out in favor of the far right in Argentina and Honduras. force. Israel’s far right, with Trump’s endorsement, has significantly undermined the rule of law and given new life to Benjamin Netanyahu’s quest to continue in office. Liberal democracy, in short, is taking a beating in the Trump era, as is America’s reputation among democracies worldwide.
America’s reputation as a generous country is also no longer. The dismantlement of USAID’s programs for humanitarian assistance, particularly programs to fight disease in developing countries, is an egregious violation of global ethics. The aid field is now left to China to fill—which it is doing in Africa and Southeast Asia.
As the year ends, international violence remains high. Wars that Trump claims to have resolved go on or have reignited, such as between Thailand and Cambodia and between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda militia. Then there are the wars Trump has initiated: the attacks on Venezuelan boats on unproven allegations of drug trafficking, the naval blockade of Venezuela, and at year’s end the attacks on ISIS camps on unproven allegations of genocide against Christians. To be sure, Trump has pushed peace plans for Gaza and Ukraine. But Israeli attacks on Hamas continue, settler violence in the West Bank has reached unprecedented heights, Hamas has not been disarmed, and no progress has been made on Palestinian statehood. In Ukraine, Russian attacks on civilian targets have continued unabated even as Trump has agreed to join NATO in providing Ukraine with security guarantees. Ukraine is steadily losing lives and territory while Vladimir Putin resists a cease-fire. Despite heavy casualties and a weakened economy, Putin’s Russia seems not have taken a step back from its original aim to transform Ukraine into another Belarus.
US relations with China may be officially described as improving, as Trump seeks a comprehensive trade pact and Xi Jinping seeks an easing of US technology export controls. But the reality is that relations remain tense and confrontational, especially over Taiwan. The trade deal Trump negotiated with Xi in Korea is also a potential problem as China’s purchases of US soybeans have been less than promised and Bloomberg reports that China’s sales of rare earth magnets have not included the materials needed for the US to produce the magnets itself (US rare earth buyers still see China curbs despite Trump deal). While Trump frets about China’s trade practices, China has become the regional and global economic leader, preaching the virtues of globalization among developing countries while criticizing Trump’s protectionist policies. By November, China had broken its own trade record with a $1 trillion surplus, despite a significant decline in US trade with China.
The attempt to bully China with high tariffs was part of a foolhardy, self-defeating strategy aimed—or so Trump said—at bringing US manufacturing back home and luring more foreign investment. With a few exceptions, such as Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, the strategy hasn’t worked. The main effect of the tariffs has been to force US corporations to increase consumer prices, leading to inflation, job losses, the affordability issue for all but the wealthy, and a big political headache for Trump.
China’s ability to outlast Trump’s tariff war is just one indicator that the TACO phenomenon—Trump always chickens out—is real. The Greenlanders, Canadians, Ukrainians, and Indians are among those governments and peoples who have resisted Trump’s blandishments. Since he can’t fire them, he retreats and seeks retribution—via high tariffs on Canadian and Indian imports, spying and takeover threats in the case of Greenland. But while their resistance shows that Trump’s money can’t always buy favor, he remains the ultimate wheeler-dealer. The line between public and private business has evaporated under Trump. He bailed out Argentina on behalf of a far-right ally of Trump and Trump’s own treasury secretary. His cybercurrency transactions, his business dealings with Middle East potentates, the gifts illegally accepted from foreign governments, and his real estate and energy deals with Russia at the same time that his envoys are supposedly pursuing an end to the Ukraine war all show that there has never been a more corrupt, self-interested administration in the modern history of the US. Writing for The New Yorker, John Cassidy tallies the Trump take from crypto sales and non-crypto profits: $1.8 billion since he was reëlected, and going back to 2016, $3.4 billion altogether.
On the environmental front, the news is not good. On the tenth anniversary of the Paris accords, many countries have long given up on achieving the goal of no more than a 1.5C increase in global warming. The latest international climate change conference, COP30, fell short of host country Brazil’s announced objective of transiting away from fossil fuels. The US was not present for the first time but lobbied for oil and gas company interests—with support from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other oil-exporting countries. Arctic and Antarctic ice continues to melt, and other signs of impending catastrophe—drought, hurricanes, flooding, biodiversity loss, coral sea reef destruction—loom ever more prominent.
The Trump administration has made a great leap backward on the environment, discarding major environmental protection regulations, gutting wind and solar projects, and providing additional incentives to the oil and gas industry (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/climate/how-trumps-first-year-reshaped-us-energy-and-climate-policy.html). The very words “climate change” have been whitewashed from government publications and websites; environmental research and the scientists who do it have been marginalized. The good news is that wind and solar power are rapidly gaining adoption around the world, most notably in China, as the economics argue in their favor.
As 2025 ends, we see defiance of international law in many places. Besides instigating a war with Venezuela that seems increasingly to be all about oil, Trump’s mass deportations abroad make him complicitous in torture and other depravities, Israel continues to violate human rights in Gaza and the West Bank, and Russia is bombarding Ukraine and paying nothing for its aggression. In the White House sits a mentally unstable man who spends more time on ego-inflating projects such as constructing a $400 million ballroom and putting his name on public institutions such as the Kennedy Center and the US Institute of Peace than he does on governing. (Salon puts it well: “The [ballroom] whole thing is a too-perfect symbol of Trump’s second administration: They are very good at breaking things, but they don’t know how to create anything of value.”) There’s little reason to celebrate the state of the planet, and all the more reason to celebrate family, friends, and community. Wishing everyone good health, safety, and a strong spirit of resistance in the new year.
In the Human Interest - Mel Gurtov 